There are only six weeks of NFL betting left to tackle on the 2019 NFL season, so without too much preamble let’s just dive into the Week 12’s slate and serve up an assortment of choice bets against the spread to spot. Including three of the most highly anticipated games on the week’s betting card: Cowboys and Patriots at Foxboro, Packers and Niners on “Sunday Night Football” and the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams in “Monday Night Football.”
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, 1 p.m. ETMercedes Benz Stadium, AtlantaTV Broadcast: FOX Opening Line: Falcons -4 / 54 Season Record: Buccaneers (3-7-0) vs Falcons (3-7-0)
Will the real Falcons please stand up? The first eight weeks of the season saw the Falcons go a pathetic 1-7 SU and 2-5 ATS. Following a bye week, a totally different Falcons team emerged and that latest “formidable” instalment has been responsible for a surprising 2-0 SU and ATS mark. What’s even more of a head scratcher is the defense that’s all of a sudden materialised and come out very stingy. In the last two games, the Falcons have conceded merely 5 points. Ho Hum.
There’s something to be said about the fact that the previous two games featured divisional opponents – Saints and Panthers, two sides Atlanta knows only too well and that can be an advantage regardless of seasonal form. Well, the Falcons have a third straight divisional foe in the Buccaneers on Sunday at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
With Jameis Winston continuing his errant form and the Bucs barely registering on bettors’ radars outside of the Tampa zip code, backing the Falcons to come through in week 12 seems to be a sensible way to attack this game for Week 12 NFL picks.
NFL pick: Falcons -4 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, 1 p.m. ETPaul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati TV Broadcast: CBS Opening NFL Line: Steelers -7.5 / 39.5 Season Record: Steelers (5-5-0) vs Bengals (0-10-0)
The Pittsburgh Steelers endured a horrendous outing at FirstEnergy Stadium in Thursday Night Football, from Mason Rudolph getting knocked on the head by Myles Garret to the ensuing loss to the Browns that knocked back Mike Tomlin’s lads in the AFC playoff race.
On the bright side, the Steelers have the perfect opportunity to bounce back in week 12 against another divisional foe that’s already knockout out of the AFC frame for 2019. The Bengals with a 0-10 SU record are officially done and done with nothing to look forward to in the postseason save for dusting off their golf clubs.
The Steelers should capitalise handily over rookie Ryan Finley and the Bengals at Paul Brown. Earlier in the season, they crushed the Bengals 27-3 at Heinz Field. The Steelers are on the road this time, but the Bengals haven’t got a homefield edge to hang ones hat one. Heck, the stands are practically empty anyway these days. Plenty of room for Steelers’ faithful should they make the short trek to Cincy.
NFL pick: Steelers -6.5 (-110) with SportBet
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, 1 p.m. ETFirstEnergy Stadium, ClevelandTV Broadcast: FOX Opening NFL Line: Browns -12.5 / 45Season Record: Dolphins (2-8-0) vs Browns (4-6-0)
The Cleveland Browns are making one last push to salvage their season and with a two-game winning streak ahead of Week 12 the prognosis looks favourable, especially considering the Browns have a soft schedule down the stretch. Or does it?
Nothing is a given in the NFL. Anything can happen on any given Sunday. Only a few weeks ago, the Browns had a winnable game by all accounts against the Broncos only to come up short spectacularly.
Are two wins over the Bills and Steelers in succession enough to underscore Cleveland’s NFL odds as the massive home chalk in this game. Browns are 1-3-1 ATS at home with a -4.8 losing margin and -6.5-point differential versus the spread.
How the Browns are double-digit favourites makes little sense; never mind the quality of opponent. Besides the Dolphins are no longer the laughing stock of the league. They’ve won two of their last three games and covered in five of their last six games. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co. are showing a no quit attitude which is commendable. It was on show in the loss to the Bills last Sunday.
On paper, this game stacks up as a perfect opportunity for the Browns to deliver a beatdown. However, the Browns are far from a complete team. They’ve got a lot of ironing to do and their lack of discipline continues to be their Achilles Heel. Can’t trust them no matter how far they’re thrown on the NFL odds board.
NFL pick: Dolphins + 11 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, 1 p.m. ETLincoln Financial Field, PhiladelphiaTV Broadcast: FOXOpening NFL Line: Eagles -3 / 49.5Season Record: Seahawks (8-2-0) vs Eagles (5-5-0)
The Seattle Seahawks are riding high in the NFC West with an 8-2 SU mark and are coming off a gauntlet throwing win over the San Francisco 49ers. Indeed, the Seahawks handed the previously undefeated Niners their first loss of the season.
What have the Eagles accomplished thus far to warrant favouritism against one of the legitimate playoff contenders in the NFC. Check that…against one of six legitimate NFC Super Bowl contenders. Hmm? Anything?
Not much. Case-and-point, the loss to the Patriots at home in week 11 in which the Eagles offense failed to launch was just one of several examples that just go to show the Eagles are not what many expected they would be this season.
One can knit pick the Seahawks on the defensive side of the ball and the running game where they may be lacking a bit. However, what they lack on that side of the ball, they more than make up for in their quarterback, Russell Wilson. The highest-paid signal caller, who is proving his worth singlehandedly. The manner in which Wilson can rally his Seahawks to victory Is nothing short of awe-inspiring. His never quit attitude even when the team is trailing in a game is second to none.
Seattle as the nominal road underdogs is a bargain-basement find that shouldn’t be left begging for week 12 NFL picks. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks “defy the odds” and pull off the road upset.
NFL pick: Seahawks +1.5 (-110)
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Redskins
Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, 1 p.m. ETFedEx Field, Landover TVBroadcast: FOXOpening Line: Lions -1 / 41.5Season Record: Lions (3-6-1) vs Redskins (1-9-0)
Detroit Lions fans have had little to cheer about this season, so too have the Washington Redskins fans. Something’s going to give when these two NFC stragglers collide in week 12 for a game that will bear little importance for 2019.
Matthew Stafford is questionable and unlikely to start, which means Jeff Driskel will square up against rookie Dwayne Haskins. The Redskins are riding a four-game losing streak, two of which featured Haskins as the starter. Callahan’s not impressing as the interim head coach and Haskins isn’t impressive at all.
By the stats, there’s nothing to endorse a bet on the hosts for this week’s NFL picks, even as the nominal home underdogs against the spread. The Lions, while riddled with a ton of issues on both sides of the ball as well, should still be in good shape. They’re the better team. Maybe Matt Patricia gets a Gatorade shower too.
NFL pick: Lions -3.5 (+100) with Sport Bet
Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, 4:25 p.m. ET Gillette Stadium, FoxboroTV Broadcast: FoxOpening Line: Patriots -7 /46Season Record: Cowboys (6-4-0) vs Patriots (9-1-0)
Tom Brady was unusually dejected following the Patriots’ win over the Eagles in week 11. The offense isn’t what he’d like it to be and that has him clearly glum. Be that as it may, let’s not forget the Patriots are still 9-1 SU. Not only are they one of the toughest teams to beat this season, but they’re historically a tough team to beat at the Foxboro.
This is a must-win game for the Patriots if they hope to maintain their lead in the AFC standings, and stay ahead of Baltimore in the race for the No.1 seed and homefield advantage. Nobody understands the magnitude and importance of winning down the stretch than Belichick and the Patriots do.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys may be all smiles after a hard fought win in Detroit on Sunday, a game that saw Prescott gobble up a ton of yards (400-plus) and litter the stat sheet in many categories. But…teeny weeny detail (don’t worry if you didn’t notice it because only the keenest eye for detail would have picked it up)…it was the LIONS!!! The 3-6-1 SU Lions playing with a serviceable backup Jeff Driskel at centre.
That the Cowboys needed to do all that to edge the Lions 35-27 is nothing to be pleased about, surely. It just brings up the underlying concerns for the Cowboys this season, particularly the 0-3 SU record against legitimate playoff teams. To date, the sum total of their 6-4 SU record is built on lesser opposition.
Yes, the Patriots offense isn’t what it’s cracked up to be. Brady might be grumpy. But the Patriots have lost just one game all season and none at home. They’re 3-1 ATS at the Foxboro this season with a 20.2 winning margin on average and a +7.2 differential versus the spread.
NFL pick: Patriots -6 (-105)
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, 4:25 p.m. ETLevi’s Stadium, Santa ClaraTV Broadcast: NBC OpeningNFL Line: Niners -3 / 46Season Record: Packers (8-2-0) vs Niners (9-1-0)
The NFC showdown between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers promises to be epic. It’s a potentially deciding towards the No.1 seed in the playoffs, a fact that has prompted the NFL to reschedule this game for primetime viewing on Sunday.
Appropriately, the Niners are the home faves but only just with a field goal edge at early doors. Against the spread, the Niners are 2-2-1 ATS at home with a 15.4 winning margin on average and a +9.0 differential versus the spread. Their last three games were veritable nail-bitters, two of which were decided by a handful of points.
The Packers are coming off a bye which will give them a slight advantage over the banged up Niners, so long as they don’t come out of the gates lethargic. The Packers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with a 2.2 winning margin and a +1.8 differential versus the spread.
The Packers are chasing the Niners in the standings and a win would pull Green Bay ahead on head-to-heads. Conversely, a win for the Niners would keep them in the driver’s seat. The premium on the win as such couldn’t be any greater. If this game lives up to the billing, it could be a close affair decided by a few points.
NFL pick: Packers +3 (+100)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday, Nove. 25, 2019, 8:15 p.m. ETLos Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los AngelesTV Broadcast: ESPN OpeningNFL Line: Ravens -2.5 / 49Season Record: Ravens (8-2-0) vs Rams (6-4-0)
How are the Ravens such small favourites against the spread for this Monday Night showdown with the Los Angeles Rams? Granted the Ravens are on the road, but it’s not as if the Rams have some amazing homefield advantage that would underline the market outlook so narrowly.
The Rams are 6-4 SU and 3-2 SU at home, but they’re just 2-2 ATS at the Coliseum. Jared Goff has been questionable since week 1 and the Rams are coming off an uninspiring win over the Bears.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are riding a six-game winning streak – the longest active winning streak in the league. They’re 4-1 SU on the road with a 3-2 ATS mark that includes a stellar 19.4 winning margin.
In the last two games, Lamar Jackson kicked up his feet in the fourth quarter and was seen chilling at the side lines, so overwhelming was Baltimore’s lead in both games that John Harbaugh wisely gave his precious quarterback a rest.
No head coach has figured out how to stop Lamar Jackson. Sean McVay will be challenged to stop the human wrecking ball. What’s more, now that the rest of the league has McVay’s offense all sussed and he’s shown little ability to adapt, expect Harbaugh and the much improved Ravens defense to ride roughshod over Goff and the Rams.
NFL pick: Ravens -3 (-107)
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