By The Secret Psychic Spy, WrestlingObserver.com
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $758.34
Last week (Feb 28): 2/5
Overall: 30/52 (58%)
It was a bad week last week. Even though we went 2/5, which isn’t that bad, the 2 wins were the biggest favorites and we took a huge hit. So this week, I’m sizing the bets a little lower in an attempt to build that bankroll back up slowly. This is a show from Brazil that many of you reading this might not even be aware was happening but it is. And yes, Ryan LaFlare is competing in a UFC main event. And Josh Koscheck, last seen foaming at the mouth and passed out in Los Angeles, is back 3 weeks later to fight in the Octagon again. As usual, we’ve got 5 picks here for you, the reader. You may just want to bet against me as that would be the profitable play in recent weeks.
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> Pick 1: Leandro Santos (13-3-1) EVEN over Tony Martin (9-2) — I’m betting $40 to win $40
Santos hasn’t lost in almost six years and he’s 2-0 in UFC. Martin lost his first two UFC fights. He did win the last fight against non-contender Fabricio Camoes but he’s got a country against him here.
> Pick 2: Demian Maia (19-6) +120 over Ryan LaFlare (11-0) — I’m betting $40 to win $48
Maia is a grizzled vet who’s fought anyone and everyone in his long and storied UFC career. Like Santos he’ll have a country behind him as the biggest Brazilian star on the show. LaFlare is in way over his head here. That 11-0 record looks good until you look at the victims and there’s no one on there with the pedigree of Maia.
> Pick 3: Leanardo Mafra (11-2) -155 vs Cain Carrizaso (6-1) — I’m betting $40 to win $25.81
Mafra is a former Welterweight who steps down a weight class here in his home country. He was beaten by Rick Story, a legit 170 lb’er in his last fight but had won 6 in a row before that. Carrizaso barely showed up in his UFC debut against Chris Wade and Wade isn’t exactly a top prospect. Brazil wins again.
> Pick 4: Bentley Syler (5-0) -145 over Fredy Serrano (1-0) — I’m betting $40 to win $27.59
The only fight on the show not featuring a Brazilian features two contestants from TUF Latin America. I’ve gotta think that someone in their second pro fight is in tough doing so in the UFC. For that reason alone I go with the more experienced Syler.
> Pick 5: Francisco Trinaldo (15-4) -185 over Akhbar Arreola (23-8-1) I’m betting $40 to win $21.62
Trinaldo is far more experience in terms of UFC with this being his ninth fight in the Octagon. He’s gone 5-3 against names similar to Arreola. Arreola beat Yves Edwards in his last fight, yes the same Yves Edwards who was active during the Clinton administration. The same Yves Edwards who lost to Matt Serra at lightweight in his UFC debut (that was a LONG TIME AGO, Serra’s double that weight now). Sorry, this isn’t a shot at Yves Edwards. The same Arreola who lost to Thiago Trater in his UFC debut is going to lose here to Trinaldo.
All told, I’m risking $200 with the chance to win $163.01.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Todd Martin
On with the betting game, my pick is Leandro Santos for the reasons given above.
Todd Martin: $575.24 (Picked Nelson, Pennington, Shockley, Henderson, Woodley and Krylov)
Secret Psychic Spy: $355 (Picked Cruickshank, Salazar, Strickland, Kelly, Lauzon and Aliev)
Both our picks lost last week so the standings stayed the same. I have a chance to pull into a virtual dead heat this week if my picks and Todd’s loses as Santos at even money adds $200 to my tally. Here’s Todd’s pick for this week, with his analysis. Note that the odds have climbed even higher and are currently at -550 for his pick:
Erick Silva -400 over Josh Koscheck
Koscheck looked like he had no interest in fighting a few weeks ago. I think he’s just looking to get a quick paycheck here taking this fight on short notice. It’s not a great return, but it feels like a lot surer thing to me than most 4 to 1 favorites.
Todd will have $125 more in his tally should Silva win. Excuse me for a second while I go lay some of my own money on Kos. Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else, let’s beat Todd Martin!